• Odds Of Winning Any Given Blackjack Hand
• Odds Of Winning A Single Blackjack Hand
• Odds Of Winning A Hand In Blackjack

By Henry Tamburin
No other hand makes blackjack players feel queasy than the dreaded 16. Players hate to hit the hand because they are afraid to bust. So many chicken out and stand no matter what the dealer shows. Others opt for the surrender option if it’s available figuring losing half a bet is better then losing it all. If your 16 comes as a pair of 8’s most players are reluctant to split if the dealer shows a 9, 10, or ace because they are afraid of losing two bets instead of one. Then there is the 16 made up with an Ace counted as 11 (i.e., soft 16). So what’s a player to do when he gets a 16?

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2. If you hit you win on average 30% of the time and lose 70%. If you stand you will on average win 26% and lose 74%. Note that you improve your chances of winning the hand by 4% if you hit rather than stand. But the dealer is still an overwhelming favorite to beat you because he will win 70% of the hands to your 30%.

If you happen to have a total of 12, 13 and 14 in your hand, your odds of busting are respectively 31%, 39% and 56%. The higher the total in your hand gets, the more your odds of busting increase. If the two cards in your hand total 19 and 20, hitting might not be your best option since your odds are respectively 85% and 92%. The casino may limit you options of doubling down, to only certain hand totals. Blackjack Pays 6:5. Not the normal 3:2. With this ratio, you will win less, so it is a bad rule for players. No Doubling Down - 1.47%. The Player Loses 17 Ties. You and the dealer have 17. Blackjack Pays 1:1. Not the normal 3:2.

Knowing your odds of busting in a particular situation or your odds of getting a blackjack can help you make better choices for your hand. For instance, if you know that you have a high chance of surpassing 21, you will refrain from hitting. This way, you will increase your chances of winning as you will make the right choices at the right time.

First, let’s focus on a hard 16. That’s a hand that does not contain an Ace or if it does the Ace counts as one. Some examples of a hard 16 would be 10-6 or 5-7-4 or 7-8-Ace.

The correct basic playing strategy for hard 16 is to stand when the dealer shows a small card (2 through 6) and hit when the dealer shows a high card (7, 8, 9, 10, or Ace). Following this playing strategy will not guarantee that you will win every time but that you are more likely to lose less in the long run. Let me explain.

Suppose you are dealt a 10-6 and the dealer shows a 7 upcard.

Odds Of Winning Any Given Blackjack Hand

If you hit you win on average 30% of the time and lose 70%.

If you stand you will on average win 26% and lose 74%.

Odds Of Winning A Single Blackjack Hand

Note that you improve your chances of winning the hand by 4% if you hit rather than stand. But the dealer is still an overwhelming favorite to beat you because he will win 70% of the hands to your 30%. But is it better to win 26% of the time by standing or 30% of the time by hitting? You should hit because it will increase your chance of winning by 4%, not much, but every percentage will help you in the long run when you play blackjack.

So the bottom line with a hard 16 is this. Even by following the basic strategy you will lose more hands than you win but in the long run you will loss less than following a seat-of-the-pants strategy. Losing less on hands where you are the underdog is just as important as winning more when you are the favorite.

What if your 16 consists of three or more cards like 5-7-4? Normally the basic strategy ignores the composition of the hand. However, if you have a hard 16 hand consisting of three or more cards, then you should stand when the dealer has a 10 showing. The reason is that you have consumed a few of the small cards that you need if you were to draw. This tips the odds in favor of standing.

Some casinos allow players to surrender. This means you give up the opportunity to play out your hand and automatically lose half your bet. Even when surrender is offered, most players don’t like “giving up” without a fight. So they rarely surrender. That’s unfortunate because surrendering a hard 16 when the dealer shows a 9, 10, or Ace will save you more money in the long run than hitting. In fact surrender is always the best option when your chance of winning a hand is less than 25%. Take the hand of hard 16 against a 10. If we hit our chance of winning is 23.4%. This means the dealer’s chance of beating us is 76.6%. If we played a hundred hard 16’s against the dealer 10 with those probabilities, we would end up winning about $23 and losing $77 for a net loss of $54 on average. By surrendering on every hand our net loss would be $50. Get the point? You are better off losing $50 then $54 which is why surrendering a hard 16 against a 10 is the better play because you will save $4.

If you happen to be dealt a soft 16 (like Ace-5), you should never surrender and you should never stand. Your first option is to double but only if the dealer shows a weak 4, 5 or 6 upcard. If not, then hit.

Finally, we have the pair of 8’s. The correct basic strategy play is to always split the 8’s no matter what the dealer shows. Even though you will lose money on both 8’s when you split, the combined loss in the long run will be less than the amount you will lose by playing the one hand as a 16. Splitting 8’s against a dealer 10 by the way is also a slightly better play then surrendering.

No question that 16 is a lousy blackjack hand. Unfortunately, it’s one of the most frequent hands you are going to be dealt in blackjack. But, by following the above playing strategy you will be optimizing your chances of winning more, and losing less, in the long run. It’s the smart way to play blackjack.

Henry Tamburin has been a respected casino gambling writer for the past 50 years. He is the author of the Ultimate Blackjack Strategy Guide and was editor of the Blackjack Insider newsletter. You can read his latest articles on blackjack, video poker, and his personal playing experiences at https://www.888casino.com/blog/writers/henry-tamburin

How Do You Calculate Blackjack Odds?

Blackjack is perhaps the only casino game that offers a skilled player a competitive advantage against the house. Provided players use basic blackjack strategy, card counting skills, and carefully select the right game, it’s entirely possible to whittle away the house edge. Caesars Games – a leading provider of online slot games – conducted extensive research into the best blackjack game available to players. One game comes up trumps every time, Single Deck Classic Blackjack!

Judging by other reviews I've read on YELP, many others seem to agree. The Snoqualmie does offer shuttle service to and from the casino in the outlying areas, but the shuttle service times are quite limited and with a ten dollar cost.

Classic Blackjack Odds

One of the world’s most renowned authorities on casino game probabilities is the Wizard of Odds. This comprehensive gambling portal provides in-depth information on the house edge of blackjack games, given specific rules of play. Let’s assume that 1 deck of cards is used in a game of Classic Blackjack. Several other assumptions need to be made to calculate the house edge, including the following:
• Dealer stands on soft 17
• Players can re-split Aces
• Players can hit split Aces
• Players can re-split to 4 hands
• Players can Double after a Split
• No Surrender and Blackjack pays 3: 2
• Players can Double on any first 2 cards
• Player does not lose original bet against the Dealer Blackjack

Given these rules, the player has a 0.23967% edge over the house. When using a basic strategy with a cut card, the player still has an edge over the house of 0.08797%. If a continuous shuffler is used, the player edge is 0.20097%. The house edge increases when the number of decks of cards increases. For example, if all the rules stay the same and 8 decks of cards are used, the house edge with optimal gameplay is 0.30518%!

Why Would a Casino Offer Classic Blackjack to Players?

Believe it or not, there are a handful of games provided by casinos that offer players a competitive advantage. Classic Blackjack is one of them. True, you are unlikely to find this game at many Atlantic City casinos or Las Vegas casinos for this reason. Classic Blackjack is played with just 52 cards comprising 4 suits (diamonds, hearts, clubs, and spades) with 2-10 worth their face value, Aces worth 1 or 11, and Jacks, Queens, and Kings worth 10.
There is an important blackjack rule that you probably don’t want to miss. Look carefully at the table and see whether blackjack pays 3:2, or 6:5. The best variant of this casino card game is the 3:2 version. Consider the payouts if you place a $100 bet and you hit blackjack. On the one hand you can win $150, and on the other you can win $120 – it’s a no-brainer. Equally important is what the dealer does on 16 and 17. Most of the time, the dealer is required to draw to 16 and stand on all 17s. Sometimes, the dealer is only required to stand on soft 17 (Includes an Ace).

Easy Blackjack Tips to Remember

• Always split a pair of Aces
• Stand if your hand total is a hard 17 – 21 (no Aces)
• Stand if you have a soft hand total of 19 – 21 (includes Aces)
• Always hit if your hand total is less than/equal to 11 – you can never bust!
• A natural blackjack (10-value card + Ace) beats any hand total that sums to 21
• Always use blackjack strategy charts and odds calculators to stand the best chance of winning

How Hard Is It to Beat the Dealer in Blackjack?

The trick to playing blackjack well is knowing which games to play, which rules to select, and how to manage your bankroll well. Blackjack is primarily a skill-based casino card game. An element of luck is involved since players don’t know what the next card is going to be with any certainty. You cannot alter the cards you have been dealt – you can only manage the way you play them. A fixed set of rules requires blackjack dealers to play a certain way. Like all casino games, the house has an inherent advantage, which is typically limited to around 1% in blackjack.

You may be wondering why the house has an advantage over the player? The reason for this is simple: The dealer acts after the player. If the player busts, the dealer is not required to continue playing, and wins by default. Fortunately, there are multiple blackjack guides, articles, rules, charts, and calculators that can teach players the art of the deal. It’s important to understand key terms in blackjack such as:
• Hit – take another card.
• Double Down – opt for one final card, double your bet, and stand.
• Stand – take no further action and stick with what you have.
• Split – Split identical cards such as a pair of Kings, a pair of Two’s, into 2 separate hands with additional wagers on each hand.
• Surrender – this option (if available) allows players to surrender a bad hand for 50% of their bet.
• Choose 3:2 over 6:5 on Blackjack – this simply gives you a higher payout

The importance of basic blackjack strategy cannot be stressed enough. This is typically represented in a grid/chart which indicates the following:
• The dealer’s upcard versus the player’s hand
• Multiple combinations are possible from 2 – Ace (for the dealer) and all the available 2-card combinations for the player.
• Players must either hit, double, stand, or split depending on the cards the dealer is showing and the player’s hole cards.

Players are advised to select blackjack games that require a dealer to stand on all 17. This makes it easier for the player to win in the long-term. Another important point to bear in mind is that of card shuffling machines. If you are an experienced card counter, it is best to avoid these machines since it makes it difficult to keep an accurate count.

Perhaps the most important rule for the game of blackjack, or any casino game is effective bankroll management. If you’re playing Classic Blackjack, you must manage your bankroll well. Set loss limits and profit limits and always know when to walk away

Odds Of Winning A Hand In Blackjack